Growth Projections and Employment and Commercial Land Reviews

During the Dec. 5, 2023 meeting of City Council, a motion was passed endorsing the medium growth scenario put forth in the report about the initial Population, Housing and Employment Growth Forecast Update to 2051.

Using this scenario more detailed work will now begin on the Population, Housing and Employment Forecast, Employment Land Review, and Commercial Land Review as the project continues into 2024. Updates and public engagement opportunities will be shared on this page.

For more info check out the Dec. 5 meeting minutes or read the staff report to Council.

This project is complete, the information below is archived from the project's background and retained here for reference only.

Population, Housing & Employment Projections Study

The City is undertaking a Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study for the City of Kingston and the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). The Kingston CMA includes the City of Kingston and the Townships of South Frontenac, Loyalist and Frontenac Islands. The study is being managed by Planning Services. The City has retained a consultant team led by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd to undertake the study. This work is being done in conjunction with the Employment Lands Review and the Commercial Lands Review.

Purpose

Population, housing and employment projections provide the foundation for the City's long-range land use, transportation, infrastructure and capital expenditure planning. The projections are completed every five years to recognize new Statistics Canada Census data and to extend the planning horizon. The study was last updated in 2019. This Study identified a range of scenarios, including low, base (medium) and high population, housing and employment forecasts within the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston in five-year intervals to 2046. The base case growth scenario was recommended as the preferred growth scenario.

Public Engagement

Public and stakeholder consultation is an important component of the study update. Residents are invited to an open house on June 19 from 6 to 8 p.m. at Memorial Hall (located inside City Hall), 216 Ontario Street

There will be a short presentation by the consultants followed by an opportunity for questions and answers.

Objectives

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. will develop three estimates (low, medium and high) for population, housing and employment growth for the City and the CMA at 5 year intervals from the 2021 census data to the year 2051.

The main objectives of the Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study are as follows:

• To forecast the change in institutional population and non-institutional population presented in five-year intervals in the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2051.
• To forecast "natural" population growth (births and deaths) in five-year intervals in the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2051.
• To forecast the net migration rate in five-year intervals for the Kingston CMA and City of Kingston to 2051.
• To forecast the anticipated change in household size for the Kingston CMA and City of Kingston to 2051.
• To estimate the amount (both rental and ownership housing) and type of housing required to accommodate the projected change in population to 2051 for occupied and unoccupied dwelling units.
• To evaluate and identify trends and future change in the City of Kingston's rental market.
• To estimate student population change in the City of Kingston based on enrolment growth to local post-secondary institutions and to forecast the impact of change on housing demand to 2051.
• To forecast the amount and type of employment growth projected in five-year intervals for the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2051 and to further forecast this growth by various employment sub-sectors.
• To evaluate employment trends and provide commentary on what key industrial sectors and other priority areas should be the focus for economic development planning.

Employment Land Strategy Review

The City is undertaking an Employment Land Review. The study is being managed by Planning Services, and the City has retained a consultant team led by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. to undertake the study. The purpose of the study is to undertake a comprehensive review of both City-owned and privately-owned employment lands within the City and recommend a long-term vision and strategy to ensure the provision of an adequate supply of jobs for the City’s growing population. This work is being done in conjunction with the Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study, and the Commercial Land Review.

An update to this Study is conducted approximately every five years to provide the foundation for the City's long-range planning. The Employment Land Strategy Review Study was last completed by Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. in association with Dillon Consulting Limited in March 2015. The recommendations of the study were implemented through the City’s five-year Official Plan Update in 2017.

Review of the City’s Official Plan

In 2023, the City will be initiating the next review of its Official Plan.

In 2022, the City requested all owners of designated Employment Lands to complete a property information form and also accepted requests to convert employment lands to a non-employment use via the form. Requests for conversion do not guarantee that those lands will be converted or that the request will be supported through the Official Plan review process. Conversion requests will be reviewed through the Employment Lands Review in the context of all applicable Provincial and municipal policies, as well as holistically within the context of the review of the supply and demand of Employment Lands across the municipality. Ultimately, the final decision on any new Official Plan policies or amendments will be under the jurisdiction of Kingston City Council and the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. The overall timing of the Official Plan review is not currently defined, with a potential completion date towards the end of 2026.

Commercial Land Review

The City of Kingston has initiated a new Commercial Land Review ahead of the next review of the Official Plan. The study is being managed by Planning Services, and the City has retained a consultant team led Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.to undertake the study. The purpose of the review is to update the City's commercial inventory, complete a commercial land supply and demand analysis, and provide guidance and policy recommendations to update and improve the commercial policy structure in the City's Official Plan. This work is being done in conjunction with the Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study, and the Employment Land Review.

An update to this Study is conducted approximately every five years to provide the foundation for the City's long-range planning. The previous Commercial Land Review Report, completed by SGL Planning and Design Inc. and urbanMetrics inc., was accepted by City Council on May 17, 2016.

Key Findings of the 2016 Commercial Land Review

The key findings and recommendations of the 2016 Commercial Land Review were:

• Increased residential intensification had led to more intensive commercial formats that had previously been resisted by the retail industry.

• In 2015, the city had approximately 9.6 million square feet of commercial space in total. It was estimated that almost 1 million square feet of commercial space was added since 2007. The downtown commercial node comprised 15% of all commercial space in Kingston and was the city's largest commercial node.

• The ‘Services' category (which includes financial services, entertainment, personal services, medical services, eating/drinking facilities, professional offices, daycare facilities and others) experienced the highest growth between 2007 and 2015.

• In 2015, the city had an overall commercial vacancy rate of 6.5% city-wide, which was within a healthy range of typically between 5% and 8%.

The 2016 findings indicated that there was no demonstrated need for additional commercial designated lands in the city. While there may be needed uses that may not be able to fit on an existing commercial site, the City should ensure that:

1. there is market to support the use,
2. that it cannot reasonably be accommodated on other vacant designated commercial sites and
3. that it would not significantly impact the planned function of existing or planned commercial areas.

Market findings supported residential development downtown to support downtown commercial vitality, and continued encouragement of mixed-use formats.

This survey closed March 15.

In partnership with urbanMetrics, experts in the field of commercial land need studies, the City is asking community members to fill out a brief survey about their spending habits. The survey is open until March 15 and takes about 10-15 minutes to complete. Alternate survey options are available Monday to Friday between 8:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., during that time printed copies can be picked up at 1211 John Counter Blvd. or participants can take the survey over the phone by calling 613-546-000 ext. 3242. Participating in the survey allows you to enter a draw for a $50 gift card to any store in the Downtown Kingston Business Improvement Association.

The survey is open until March 15 at 4 p.m.

In December 2023, City Council endorsed the medium growth scenario of a population, employment and housing forecast study which estimates Kingston’s population will grow to nearly 220,000 people by 2051. This survey supports the commercial land review currently underway, which is founded on the population, employment and housing growth estimate. The commercial land review will provide a long-term assessment of the City’s commercial needs and structure and inform the City’s upcoming review of its Official Plan.

On June 19, an open house was held to talk about Kingston’s population, housing and employment outlook. During the event the study team discussed how the city is projected to grow between now and 2051 and answered questions about the study process and methodology. The projections study is being prepared in conjunction with an employment land review and a commercial land review. The analysis, conclusions and recommendations resulting from these key background studies will form the basis for residential, industrial and commercial land use policies in the upcoming review of the City’s Official Plan.

View the open house presentation and Q&A below: